Lester Gosbee’s Famous Weather Forecast

 Lester Gosbee's famous weather forecast has just been published. It covers the period from October to November 2015. It is published below.

In Gravesend, Kent on 1st October 2011, a new record was set for the highest October temperature of 29.90 c/ 85.82 f. This is a higher temperature than we would get in a whole year, in many years. This October will start fine and breezy with a south westerly wind. Temperatures will be around 17 – 19 c/ 63 – 66 f depending on how much sunshine you get, a little above average. Low pressure will move in on 3rd, bringing gusty high winds inland of up to 45mph. Over the Channel, winds could reach 60mph, our first high winds of the season. There will be the possibility of structural damage, and the odd fallen branch/tree. Some places will get between 15 and 30mm, and with falling leaves it will feel very autumnal. Temperatures will be at 13 – 15 c/ 55 – 59 f in the south. Squally showers will follow with the possibility of 'one-bang' thunderstorms. High pressure will return around 6th, keeping the weather fine for a week. There will be pleasant spells of sunshine with temperatures around 17 – 18 c/ 63 – 65 f, a little below average. However, temperaures will plummet in sheltered frost hollows in Cambridge, Oxfordshire, Writtle in Essex, Weald of Kent, and other  areas could have temperatures that drop as low as -2 c /28 f. Low pressure will take over this time. There will be rain, not much sun and not much wind to drive it along, so it will be quite miserable at times. "St Luke's Little Summer" starts on 18th October, and the weather will show improvement. High pressure will take control in light southerly winds. This will allow fog to form. The M25, M1, M11 and M5 will be the worst affected, but the sun will win on most days and when it does, temperatures could rise to 20 c/ 68 f in London, the South East, Essex and my old favourite, Gravesend. Nights will be mild, even in thick fog. Low pressure will take over from 25th and there will be a quiet spell of weather, but there will also be light rain/ drizzle for most places. There will be no sun and it will gradually get colder. Parts of the South Midlands and Norfolk will have temperatures around 10 c/ 50 f and 12 c/ 54 f elsewhere, a bit below average. This will make most of us put our central heating on, if you haven't been tempted to put it on already. It will be a bit more breezy on the last day of the month from the south west, which may break up the cloud a bit. October's highest day temperature will be: 20 c/ 68 f (on 19th, and a few times after that).   October's lowest day temperature will be: 9 c/ 48 f. October's lowest night temperature will be: -3 c/ 27 f (in frost hollows).  Rainfall: October's rainfall will be around average at 85 to 95mm, but north Norfolk and Lincolnshire will have at least 20mm less (about 3.5 inches). October's sunshine will be average 95 hours. The normal for the areas that I forecast for in October is around 110 hours, so it will be 15% below average. The Central England Temperature will be 12.44 c. Last October it was 10.9 c/ 50.90 f, the average for the areas that I forecast for.
 
NOVEMBER   
The month will start with low pressure with a light south westerly wind. A more vigorous low will bring wet windy weather from 3rd, but it should remain mild at 14 c/ 57 f. The wind will turn north westerly with showers, but you should be lucky for bonfire Night, but it will be colder than last year, when it was15 c/ 59 f in Kent. This year it will be nearer 11 c/ 52 f, but lower at 9 c/ 48 f in Norfolk and the Midlands. Pressure will rise a little, giving all area that I forecast for  frosty nights, local fog patches and our first icy roads, especially north of London. A deep area of low pressure will bring gales and heavy rain. Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire will have local flooding. Up to 40mm could fall. On 12th, there will be some heavy spells of rain in all areas with winds at around 30mph. The Sussex Coast from Hastings to Camber Sands will get at least 30mm, so local flooding is most likely. The weather will stay very unstable with a selection of low pressure systems, bringing further spells of rain followed by squally showers. There will be the odd day of dry weather. Winds will be mostly westerly or south westerly. Temperatures will be around the mid- November average, with the odd colder showery day thrown in for good measure. After 22nd, high pressure will return, bringing us all frosty nights with a little brightness by day. Fog will become more of a problem. The thickest of the fog will be around M20 in Kent, M25 and M11. It could become freezing fog.  The weather will get much colder from 25th, possibly droppping as low as -2 to -5 c/ 28 to 23 f at night, possibly even lower in frost hollows. Daytime temperatures will be at only 4 – 6 c/ 39 to 43 f, but closer to freezing where fog is most persistent. This will be replaced by a cold northerly wind from 26th. There could be the first snow over the Lincolnshire 'Wolds. Snow showers could also be seen over Hereford and Worcester. In fact, over any ground above 200 metres. There will be the odd sleet shower over the North Kent Downs. A real taste of wintery weather will see the month out. The wind will be chilly and will be an added factor. There will be a few brighter spells. It will be too windy for frosts, but the sheltered Weald of Kent could see some frosts. Day temperatures will be around 3 c/ 37 f in Lincolnshire and 6 c/ 43 f in London.   November's highest day temperature will be: 15 c/ 59 f (Last November Writtle in Essex started the month with a temperature of 18.7 c/ 65.66 f, following the record breaking Halloween temperature when Gravesend reached 23.6 c/ 74.48 f. A summer temperature at the end of October is hard to believe. The old record of 19.4 c/ 66.92 f was set in Margate in 1968.  November's lowest day temperature will be: 1 c/ 34 f (In the freezing fog in Benson, Oxfordshire. Many places will fail  to reach 40 f. Last November, many places failed to reach temperatures in double figures).  November's lowest night temperature will be: -6 c/ 21 f (In one or two frost hollows. Even Central London will get down to freezing). Rainfall: It will be 30% above average for the areas that I forecast for, at 90 -110mm/ around 4 inches. The average is 70mm, a little below 3 inches. Sunshine will be between 50 and 60 hours, 10% below average. The Channel Isles and the Isle of Wight should reach a normal 70 hours. The Central England Temperature will be 6.4 c/ 43.52 f. Last November it was 8.7 c/ 47.66 f and the average for the areas that I forecast for is 7 c/ 44.60 f.